State economists say Florida’s population growth is slowing

Florida’s population growth is slowing slightly as deaths exceed births and the rush of people leaving other states during the COVID-19 pandemic wanes.

Still, with an estimated 22.25 million residents as of April 1, Florida continues to experience a population increase that’s roughly equivalent to adding a city the size of Orlando every year, according to a report. statement released on Tuesday.

The report by economists, meeting as the Population Estimates Conference, revised the state’s growth rate to 1.29% for the period through April 1, 2027. In December, the conference estimated the growth rate at 1.41%.

Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, said the state is “only halfway through” the baby boomer retirement period, which is a big number of people from other states. Meanwhile, younger generations are waiting longer to have children.

“And when they have kids, they have fewer,” Baker said at a July 18 conference meeting. “That’s not a Florida stat. This one is national.

Florida over the past two years has seen an increase in the number of people moving to Florida from states that have maintained lockdowns and health security measures longer than Florida due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 19. But those gains were offset by “fewer births and more deaths than expected,” according to the report.

“Natural increase is expected to remain negative throughout the forecast horizon as deaths continue to outpace births,” the summary states.

Florida Department of Health figures used by economists said deaths exceeded births by nearly 45,000 in 2021. As of June 22 of this year, the state had totaled 106,000 deaths and 96,000 births.

“Births were lower than we expected in December, and deaths are higher than we expected, which obviously lowers our natural increase,” Pam Schenker, who looks after demographics and census for the Office of Economic & Demographic Research, said at the July 18 meeting.

In addition, pandemic-induced migration from other states is forecast to slow.

“The spike was COVID-related because fewer people are leaving the state than entering it,” said Holger Ciupalo, policy coordinator for the governor’s Office of Policy and Budget. “As a result, you see the spikes for two years. And it comes back down with other states being as open as Florida.

The new estimates put the state on pace to add 294,756 net new residents annually over the next five years, or 808 per day. That’s down from a December projection of 309,867 new residents per year, or 849 per day. The numbers are similar to the population of the city of Orlando, although the greater Orlando metropolitan area has a much higher number of residents.