New paper from the NPG Forum discusses the trajectory of population growth

Gronewold examines recent research on life expectancies, birth rates and national migration patterns, then contradicts predictions that post-pandemic life will expand and the population will grow again.

Negative Population Growth has published a new article in its Forum series: Will 2022 Be the First Year of US Negative Population Growth? Written by Nathanial Gronewold, this article discusses the potential trajectory of population growth in the United States during this period of historically low birth rates and a global pandemic, positing: “American population growth could be driven lower or even become negative in 2022 as America Three of the COVID-19 pandemic. Starting with the basics, Gronewold presents two highlights to the reader, sharing, “Neither me nor negative population growth is celebrating the cause of this demographic downturn. No one is – there are no words to describe the devastation caused by the pandemic and the amount of suffering caused by COVID-19. The pandemic is a crisis. A barely growing or even declining population is not.

Next, Gronewold examines recent research on life expectancies, birth rates and national migration patterns, then contradicts predictions that post-pandemic life will thrive and the population will grow again. After noting that life expectancies and birth rates are expected to rebound to pre-pandemic averages, he adds that we are still living through the pandemic and that the final numbers – ultimately – may not reflect the assumptions of the researchers. Looking at the great migration of COVID-19, Gronewold describes the move from place to place as “nothing new”, explaining, “Los Angeles has lost people to places like Texas, Arizona and the United States. Utah for the better part of a decade, but LA still saw a net gain in residents from 2010 to 2020 due to natural increase and immigration contributions.

To further disrupt the media frenzy surrounding current demographic trends, Gronewold presents the possible scenario where calls for increased immigration become louder due to the narrative that expanding the country’s population is the only way for the economy to grow. He then presents a potential sticking point, sharing that for the storyline to work, “you have to assume that immigrants actually want to come to our shores.” Adding: “America’s reputation abroad has taken a hit lately and potential immigrants have other options.” Addressing again the importance of birth rates in the population conversation, Gronewold points to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, arguing: “Birth rates have not recovered from the last economic crisis of ten years ago. years”. He goes on to say, “I suspect we could see the same thing happen in the years following the COVID-19 crisis – the US birthrate may recover somewhat but will likely fall back again over time.”

Gronewold then persuades the reader to see the change in migration – not as a trend – but as a direct response to population density, stating, “The pandemic has exacerbated or accelerated a pre-existing trend of Americans leaving cities or states more expensive in favor of less populated urban centers and more affordable housing. Gronewold is then able to highlight a critical point that is not getting the attention it deserves, saying: “The exodus from New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and other expensive urban hubs does not make life more affordable in these cities. . However, this is driving up the cost of living in the new urban magnets of Denver, Austin, Atlanta and other fast-growing metropolitan areas.

In conclusion, Gronewold considers the magnitude of the many moving parts that constitute the reasons for population growth in the United States, and then assumes that negative population growth in the United States is possible, telling the reader, “While epidemiologists think this pandemic will eventually go away and become something like seasonal flu, in the short term, we can’t ignore what’s happened in the last two years. Nevertheless, there is a silver lining. This author believes that lower, slower, and ultimately negative population growth in the United States is both desirable and inevitable. Reaching this milestone this year gives us the opportunity (albeit temporary) to demonstrate how everything that is being done wrong by population growth – growing economic insecurity, loss of biodiversity, global warming, etc. – could be corrected by its opposite.

Founded in 1972, NPG is a national nonprofit organization dedicated to educating the American public and political leaders about the harmful effects of population growth. We believe that our country is already vastly overpopulated in terms of the long-term carrying capacity of its resources and environment. NPG is advocating for the adoption of its proposed National Population Policy, with the goal of eventually stabilizing the US population at a sustainable level – well below that of today. We don’t just identify problems, we provide solutions. For more information, visit our website at, follow us on Facebook @NegativePopulationGrowth or follow us on Twitter @npg_org.

Share the article on social networks or by e-mail: